Predictor — learning loop
Aratea is a weather-factor discovery engine. Every named feature here is a hypothesis; every training run measures whether it carries signal. The bench is the same row-set kalshi_mid Brier — beat the market, on its own ground.
What Aratea thinks today
Daily low temperature · PHX
Aug 10, 2026 · B85.5
Today's question
Will the lowest temperature in PHX on Aug 10, 2026 fall in the 85.5°F bin?
KXLOWTPHX-26AUG10-B85.5
Aratea's chance the answer is YES
17%
Aratea is betting YES
Bet placed by the “vendor_ensemble” model (current champion).
Aratea thinks YES is 10.7 pts more likely than the market does.
Aratea estimates YES at17.2%
Market is pricing YES at6.5%
ConfidenceMedium
The model has a clear lean, but not extreme.