Predictor — learning loop
Aratea is a weather-factor discovery engine. Every named feature here is a hypothesis; every training run measures whether it carries signal. The bench is the same row-set kalshi_mid Brier — beat the market, on its own ground.
What Aratea thinks today
Daily low temperature · LAX
May 19, 2026 · B57.5
Today's question
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on May 19, 2026 fall in the 57.5°F bin?
KXLOWTLAX-26MAY19-B57.5
Aratea's chance the answer is YES
26%
Aratea is betting NO
Bet placed by the “vendor_ensemble” model (current champion).
Aratea thinks YES is 19.9 pts less likely than the market does.
Aratea estimates YES at25.6%
Market is pricing YES at45.5%
ConfidenceMedium
The model has a clear lean, but not extreme.