Predictor — learning loop
Aratea is a weather-factor discovery engine. Every named feature here is a hypothesis; every training run measures whether it carries signal. The bench is the same row-set kalshi_mid Brier — beat the market, on its own ground.
What Aratea thinks today
Daily low temperature · BOS
Jul 11, 2026 · B66.5
Today's question
Will the lowest temperature in Boston on Jul 11, 2026 fall in the 66.5°F bin?
KXLOWTBOS-26JUL11-B66.5
Aratea's chance the answer is YES
29%
Aratea is betting YES
Bet placed by the “vendor_ensemble” model (current champion).
Aratea thinks YES is 14.4 pts more likely than the market does.
Aratea estimates YES at28.9%
Market is pricing YES at14.5%
ConfidenceMedium
The model has a clear lean, but not extreme.