Predictor — learning loop
Aratea is a weather-factor discovery engine. Every named feature here is a hypothesis; every training run measures whether it carries signal. The bench is the same row-set kalshi_mid Brier — beat the market, on its own ground.
What Aratea thinks today
Daily high temperature · DC
Oct 11, 2026 · B68.5
Today's question
Will the highest temperature in DC on Oct 11, 2026 fall in the 68.5°F bin?
KXHIGHTDC-26OCT11-B68.5
Aratea's chance the answer is YES
24%
Aratea is betting NO
Bet placed by the “vendor_ensemble” model (current champion).
Aratea thinks YES is 10.1 pts less likely than the market does.
Aratea estimates YES at24.4%
Market is pricing YES at34.5%
ConfidenceMedium
The model has a clear lean, but not extreme.